Risk

Understand your growing season

Growing seasons vary depending on the environment, so farmers need to choose hybrids or varieties that not only adapt to their region but also maintain high yields. In the southern U.S., mild winters lead to longer growing seasons. In contrast, northern regions experience more frequent frosts in spring and fall, which shortens the growing season and affects the accumulation of growing degree days (GDD). To maximize yield, farmers should select hybrids with the right maturity length for their location and typical planting date.

Frost is a major concern for farmers because it can impact crop yield. Some farmers start worrying when temperatures drop below 32°F, while others only when it falls below 28°F. Similarly, planting decisions vary—some choose to plant when frost risk is below 50%, while others wait until the risk is under 10%. Since frost risk varies by location and personal risk tolerance, there is no single strategy that works for everyone.

With the tool below, you can customize your settings to match your needs by selecting:

• The minimum temperature that could cause frost damage
• The maximum frost probability you are comfortable with

Then, for your county, you can calculate:
✅ First frost-free date (Spring)
✅ Last frost-free date (Fall)
✅ Length of the growing season in months (Season)
✅ Growing Degree Days with 50°F base temperature (GDD)

This will help you make more informed planting decisions based on your unique conditions.

Risk of extreme weather events

Besides tracking your typical growing season patterns (using the tool above), looking at the chances of specific extreme weather events can help you make better decisions about when to plant and harvest.

Use the weather tool to see how likely you are to face problems with temperature (frost or excessive heat) and precipitation (drought or flooding), during the growing season in your region.

Select your growing season dates, then set what you consider to be dangerous temperature or rainfall levels (threshold). The tool will calculate how likely these extreme conditions are to occur in your area during that time period for:

• Frost risk: Probability of minimum temperature dropping below your threshold.
• Cold streaks: Probability of several consecutive cold days.
• Extreme heat: Probability of maximum temperature exceeding your threshold.
• Heat waves: Probability of several consecutive hot days.
• Flooding risk: Probability of rainfall exceeding your threshold.
• Heavy rain streaks: Probability of several consecutive rainy days.
• Drought risk: Probability of rainfall staying below your threshold.
• Dry spells: Probability of several consecutive days with no rain.

Using these insights, you can utilize the multiple tools offered to further optimize your management practices.